Suppose you have a large bowl, large, and decided to fill it with many, many octopuses, say n octopus, more or less as shown in the following drawing ugly:
(works best if you n tanks each with an octopus, but that picture was the easiest.)
Now, decides to train octopuses to open boxes. It is difficult because octopuses are pretty smart animals, but is laborious because many octopuses. Since octopuses trained, you decide to take two boxes at the aquarium. The boxes are the same throughout: the same size, weight, color, material and content. The only difference is that a decided hit the flag of Germany and the other the flag of Australia. Because they are virtually the same cabinet, octopuses have no apparent reason to choose one over the other, so we can assume that randomly chosen . Because check boxes, notes on paper or on a computer what to chose which box octopus, and arbitrarily decide that this means that the octopus is picking the winner of a soccer match between Germany and Australia made on 13 June this year in the South African port of Durban, as part of the Soccer World Cup 2010 FIFA.
As randomized, approximately half of the octopus, or n / 2 , choose the box with the German flag, and the rest (which amount is also close to half the octopus), choose the box with the Australian flag.
Since
analyzed the results, decide to keep the n / 2 octopus who chose the box "right." The other octopuses can put in a separate bowl, or cook, or donated to an aquarium. Then take out the two boxes. In the Australian case takes the flag and the flag of Serbia hits. Some days after, preferably before the Germany-Serbia game in Port Elizabeth on June 18, preparing the boxes and check the tank again, so that octopuses choose again, and again point you chose what octopus which box.
Again, the octopuses are picking at random, and again, about half of the octopuses, and now number close to n / 4 , choose the "right" the box with the Serbian flag. Disposes of approximately n / 4 octopus who chose "wrong" Serbia pull out box, take away the flag, hit the flag of Ghana, before 23 June when teams of Ghana and Germany play in Johannesburg returns to prepare and check the boxes to the tank. Same thing will happen, something like half of octopuses remaining, n / 8 , will choose the box "winner" with the German flag and the other, more or less n / a 8 , will choose the box "loser."
decided to repeat the procedure while the German team played in the World Cup. In the game against England, n / 16 octopus choose the German box and go to the next round. In the game against Argentina, n / 32 octopus choose the German box and go to the next round. In the game against Spain, n / 64 octopus, or whatever it is, something like 1.56% of the octopus with the start of the experiment, choose the English bank.
this will be seen that the octopus works by random as blind and inexorable. Our octopus is a highly processed form of divination by the selection of equally likely binary alternatives, whose simple and familiar example is flipping a coin and guess which side it falls. Thus, the 1.56% of all similar rounds of divination can be modeled in the same way (coins, dice, marbles of two colors in a bag, octopus choosing boxes) have obtained a similar performance.
(the method actually does not work, can not serve, because it has no way to "predict" a draw, which is a valid result for a game of soccer in the early stages of a tournament.)
An octopus belongs to that select 1.56% of molluscs soothsayers by chance live in the Aquarium Sea Life Oberhausen in the German state of North Rhine-Westphalia. His name is Paul, he was put to "predict" results of matches involving the German as part of a publicity stunt and now you chose the correct box six times in a row it has become ridiculously famous. It seems that the octopus had already made a similar grace during Euro 2008, but was wrong in the final.
The newspaper came a Peruvian biologist says reveal the "secret" Octopus Paul: the animal chooses the flag with lighter colors. Forget it: Paul chose flag of Germany with all its bandota black instead of the flag of England, nearly white, and Argentina, not for nothing is "albiceleste." (Note to journalists: the next time you need a "scientific" explanation of bullshit, pull it out of someone who is aware of the bullshit in question.) However, the press reported that the octopus took one hour to choose a box for the match between Germany and Argentina. That suggests to me that the octopus Paul "choose" the boxes for yes, random, completely unrelated to the selection of Germany, the events in South Africa or the meaning caregivers give to their actions. It is a non-phenomenon, which has no cause and needs no explanation.
immediately obvious that the antics of the Sea Life Oberhausen has been a global success, after the World Cup and secure thousands of Germans and some other foreign travel to Oberhausen and pay to see Paul doing things octopus octopus or something. But I am not very clear how serious is taking the octopus Paul.
The German television news links made live to see the octopus Oberhausen Paul choose the English bank, a process described by some speakers of "drama." Some German fans, who do not distinguish between seer and sorcerer / caster, blame the poor octopus of English victory and threatens to cook. Fans from other countries were seduced by the octopus Paul, except that seem to take it more as a joke. Especially the English are about to appoint a national hero Paul octopus and some even ask for political asylum for the octopus. So they put a site where people can leave comments of admiration, hatred or their most pressing queries.
spokeswoman Sea Life Oberhausen, Tanja Munzig said not to be "a superstitious person, but [Paul] has had an incredible run of wins so far." There is an incredible streak. As I write this, Paul was right octopus six games, which makes it more likely that a multiple birth (1.2%). Paul that you will catch an octopus's eight games (1 chance in 256, or about 0.39%) is not unlikely that made more "everyday" like winning a lottery or neighborhood school (usually less than 1%), ischemic infarction (0.4%) or a plane crash (0.0004%). If we feel the opposite, it is because there are more raffles, hearts, and planes flying octopus guessing that matches. And of course, an octopus Paul Strikes six, seven or eight boxes in a row is just as likely to fail an octopus six, seven or eight boxes in a row. But octopuses are interesting failures.
However, I am open to the possibility Paul octopus that really can transcend time and space thanks to a method beyond our comprehension. In that case, the only logical explanation is that the octopus Paul is an emissary of the Great Cthulhu, preparing the glorious restoration of His government of cosmic terror. Ph'nglui mglw'nafh Cthulhu
R'lyeh wgah'nagl fhtagn!
Cthulhu fhtagn! Cthulhu fhtagn!
Cthulhu, alias Paul octopus, conquering humans
Be afraid, be very fear. And do not blaspheme against octopus Paul, or will be the last to be eaten. References
El Universal, "the great newspaper of Mexico", probably because it is an unwieldy behemoth (it is for its quality journalism, no doubt), it has everything anyone would want to know about the octopus Paul in notes of days 7 and 8 present. The next day the opinion was published biologist Alfredo Salazar, Lima.
Octopus Photo Paul is AP, and pulled the Millennium .
- Updates [11/07] As well, the octopus Paul Strikes his last two games and became more improbable. I still maintain what I said before, much rarer things happen every day, and we all so fresh.
- Fernando Frias offers more alternative explanations for octopus Paul: that the animal associated with either mussels boxes of red and yellow (like the German flag) or with the boxes on the right (mostly German). Both are plausible, and a test with zero-warm tones sounds interesting, but still pure chance would seem more parsimonious (and better explains the delay in the Germany - Argentina).
